Sarah Palin has arrived from nowhere and has given McCain a shot of monkey glands that he very desperately needs. As in any walk of life (pop music, politics, television) a fresh face with a degree of charisma causes a stir, and she has certainly done that.

However...

Sarah now embarks upon a honeymoon period that may be short lived. Having burst onto the scene, she will now be placed under a stronger spotlight than any other politician in US history, and how she copes with such a bright glare may well determine the outcome of the election, particularly as it seems likely that McCain's team will place her upfront in their campaign.

Obama and McCain have spent twelve months proving themselves in a brutal primary campaign, with every inch of their lives and personalities attacked, examined and scrutinised by the world's media, to say nothing of their opponents. This is a strength of the US election system that we lack (even if it sometimes means that the wealthiest candidates triumph on occasions). To expect a relatively young and innexperienced mother to step into such a ferocious and explosive cauldron without setbacks is a big, big ask and the pressure of expectation is, in my opinion, far too high. Sarah is mortal, whatever the excitable politicos may want us to believe. Moreover, you and I both know the effect that overnight fame can have on human beings, particularly if they aren't able to have any private time aaway from the media glare. Some personalities thrive, but others become 'drunk' with their own hype.

I think we're in for a fascinating two months. It could go either way - Sarah could maintain her momentum and become an election winner. McCain is gambling on this as to be honest she brings a bunch of negatives to his campaign, not least of which is that she makes him seem very, very old and tired in comparison with her energy. Two months of trying to keep up with the dynamic Obama (who's strategy will be to try to make McCain work 20 hours a day and fly thousands of miles a week) may well take their toll and frighten the electorate that a 72 year old is too muich of a risk in the White House. Hence McCain's strategy of putting a young and energetic running mate on the ticket; a clever move and perhaps a necessary strategy. But this then makes his running mate perhaps the most important VP candidate in US history.

This is one hell of a responsibility for any individual. Her family will be watched every second of every day. How will they cope? There seem to be a bundle of human problems in that particular nest. Can Sarah abandon her family for two solid months of electioneering, knowing that the press are camped on her daughter's doorstep 24/7? And will Sarah become TOO confident, caught up in the hype?

I watched much of the convention last night. You know, there was an extremely unsettling undertone to many of the speaches, particularly from female delegates, as if the genie of female liberation had been released from the political bottle, to a far, far greater extent than I ever saw with Hilary Clinton. Add this to the aggressive attacks upon the 'political establishment' and there is a very serious danger of alienating large elements of US society that the Republicans will need if they are to win.

In other words, the danger is of going over the top and being too aggressive in attacking a) the male establishment and b) vested political interests. Remember - ultimately whether for good or bad, the political power brokers and media moguls are male and have vested interests to protect. And if the shadowy powers that be want to take Sarah down in the next two months, they will.

As I say, we have a fascinating time ahead of us. Any my ultimate opinion? Well, I think that there is a really strong chance that the Democrats will sit back and watch the Republicans implode. I fear that the new Republican's tactics may well alienate an awful lot of their natural supporters without making inroads into Democrat territory. For the first few weeks, it may look as though the Republicans are making ground, but one false move or scandal (whether real or concocted by the tabloids) and the stategy could backfire bigtime.

From here, it looks as though McCain has committted to a massively risky strategy and has no plan B.

Let's see how long the honeymoon lasts...

M

>
> What did you think of her speech?

> Please excuse my spelling errors while on my handheld.
>
> Thank you
>
> Michael Nehra